Revised U.S. government data suggest artificial intelligence may finally be showing up in national productivity figures, offering fresh evidence in a long-running debate over whether AI has meaningfully boosted economic output.
In an op-ed for the Financial Times (London), Erik Brynjolfsson said new benchmark revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reduced previously reported payroll growth by about 403,000 jobs, even as real gross domestic product remained strong, including 3.7% growth in the fourth quarter. Economists say that combination – lower labor input alongside steady output – points to rising productivity.
Brynjolfsson, director of Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab and co-founder of Workhelix, wrote that his own updated analysis indicates U.S. productivity could grow about 2.7% in 2025, nearly double the 1.4% annual average of the past decade.
He said this aligns with the productivity “J-curve” he and his colleagues have explored in earlier research. This refers to the pattern seen with past general-purpose technologies – such as the steam engine and the computer – in which gains lag initial investment. Businesses often spend years reorganizing workflows and retraining workers before productivity improvements become measurable.
“The updated 2025 U.S. data suggests we are now transitioning out of this investment phase into a harvest phase where those earlier efforts begin to manifest as measurable output,” he said.
Company-level data also show early signs of labor market adjustments. Hiring for entry-level roles in AI-exposed sectors fell roughly 16%, while workers who use AI tools to augment their skills saw stronger demand.
But Brynjolfsson cautioned that productivity data can be volatile and remain vulnerable to geopolitical tensions and policy missteps. Still, he argued the latest figures suggest AI may be moving from experimentation to broader economic impact.
“We are transitioning from an era of AI experimentation to one of structural utility. We must now focus on understanding its precise mechanics,” he said. “The productivity revival is not just an indicator of the power of AI. It is a wake-up call to focus on the coming economic transformation.”